Researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) describe this as a “demographically divided world” that could reshape economies and societies worldwide.
Global Fertility Decline and Key Findings
According to the study, the total fertility rate (TFR) — the average number of children born per woman — must remain at 2.1 to sustain population levels. By 2050, 155 of 204 countries (76%) will fall below this replacement level, rising to 198 nations (97%) by 2100. The global TFR has halved in seven decades, dropping from 5.0 in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021. Nations such as South Korea and Serbia have some of the world’s lowest rates, under 1.1 children per woman.
Regional Variations and Population Imbalance
While fertility rates are plummeting in Europe, East Asia, and North America, parts of sub-Saharan Africa continue to experience population surges. Countries like Chad report a TFR as high as seven births per woman, twice the global average. This stark contrast is creating what experts term a dual demographic challenge — ageing populations in wealthy nations and youth bulges in developing regions.
Economic and Social Consequences
Experts warn that the “baby bust” will cause workforce shortages, threaten pension systems, and strain healthcare infrastructure in developed economies. At the same time, rapidly growing populations in low-income nations could face unemployment, instability, and pressure on food and health systems. Professor Stein Emil Vollset of IHME highlighted that some nations will be grappling with supporting the youngest, fastest-growing populations in already resource-limited settings.
Exam Oriented Facts
- By 2100, 97% of countries will have fertility rates below replacement levels.
- Global fertility rate fell from 5.0 in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021.
- South Korea and Serbia have fertility rates below 1.1 children per woman.
- Chad recorded the highest fertility rate at seven births per woman.
Policy Challenges and the Road Ahead
Researchers urge governments to adopt family-friendly policies, promote ethical immigration, and strengthen social systems to balance demographic shifts. Declining fertility could redefine the global economy and power structures, leading to intense competition for migrants and renewed focus on sustainable development across nations.
